In 2014, the global economy was still in a weak recovery channel. The US economy continued to recover, Europe grew close to zero, and the economic growth of developing countries slowed down. The international pharmaceutical market demand, especially for patented drugs, continues to grow. At the same time, the domestic pharmaceutical industry is still in a critical period of transformation, the existing comparative advantages are losing, and the new driving force for trade growth has not yet emerged. Statistics show that from January to November, the import and export of medical and health products reached 88.2 billion US dollars, up 9.21 percent year on year. Among them, exports were $49.6 billion, up by 6.96 percent, imports $38.6 billion, up by 12.24 percent, and the foreign trade surplus was $11 billion, down by more than 8 percent year-on-year. It is expected that the total annual foreign trade of Chinese medicine will reach 100 billion US dollars, and China's foreign trade of medicine will enter a period of medium-low growth.

1. The main characteristics of Chinese pharmaceutical foreign trade situation in 2014

The global pharmaceutical market is growing unabated, and the demand for small molecule patented drugs and biosimilar drugs continues to grow. However, China's pharmaceutical foreign trade is in a period of transformation and reform, and the export is still dominated by raw materials. Although the domestic pharmaceutical industry is "slimming down" under the supervision and management of various regulations issued by the state, but in the current situation where overcapacity has not been solved and new growth points have not yet emerged, China's pharmaceutical foreign trade will continue to maintain a medium-low growth rate.

(1) The export of raw drug recovered slightly

API has always been the most distinctive pharmaceutical export variety in China, which occupies an absolute share in the world API market. From January to November, the export of western medicine was 28.389 billion US dollars, up 8.72% year on year, among which the export of raw material medicine was 23.382 billion US dollars, accounting for 47.15% of the total export of medicine and health products.

Since the second quarter of 2014, the export of bulk API has stopped falling and stabilized, with a year-on-year growth of 1.08%. Although the export of bulk apis has gone through the most difficult period and the export prices have stabilized slightly, this is mainly due to the recent production decline of some bulk apis affected by the pressure of environmental protection and the price increase caused by short-term supply shortage. Overcapacity and rising production costs, which have been curbing the development of the API industry, have led to declining profits. The overall trend of the export of API industry to enter the downward channel has been irreversible.

(2) The export of pharmaceutical preparations has not reached a scale

From January to November, the export of Chinese Western medicine preparations reached 2.664 billion US dollars, up 7.64% year on year. Compared with the 23.382 billion US dollars of exports of bulk pharmaceutical products, there is still a long way to go for large-scale exports of Western pharmaceutical products. Although our overall western medicine preparation export volume is limited, we also see some of the leading enterprises actively develop the preparation export business.

(3) Plant extract leads the export of traditional Chinese medicine, and the internationalization of Chinese patent medicine faces many obstacles

The export of plant extracts continues to lead the export of Chinese medicine products. From January to November, the export volume of plant extracts was 1.592 billion US dollars, up 24.56% year-on-year. The bulk varieties that top the export list are mainly food or dietary supplement ingredients, such as stevia, ginkgo leaf, green tea and other scale varieties.

In terms of the export of Chinese patent medicine, the EU market, especially the UK market, continued to decline. Restricted by the EU approval of plant medicine and its continuity provisions (the UK prohibited the sale of unregistered traditional medicine in the country on May 1, 2014), the export of Chinese patent medicine to the EU market from January to November was 10.1 million dollars, down 4.51% year on year.

(4) The export growth of medical devices slowed down

From January to November, the overall performance of China's export of medical devices was stable. The export value of medical devices was 18.023 billion US dollars, with an increase of 3.41%. China's export of medical devices has gone through a period of rapid growth. From the fine molecular industry, Chinese export medical dressing, disposable consumables are mainly low value-added products export, export market capacity basically reached saturation. However, the export of high value-added hospital diagnosis and treatment products still has room to rise, and the export has maintained the growth momentum in the past two years. From January to November, the export value of hospital diagnosis and treatment products was 8.02 billion US dollars, up nearly 5% year on year.

5. Imports of pharmaceuticals grew steadily

In 2014, the import of traditional Chinese medicine products dropped for the first time. From January to November, the import of traditional Chinese medicine products was 923 million US dollars, down 4.26 percent year on year. The main reason is that the import volume of plant extracts used in flavor and fragrance declined. The import of Western medicine and equipment products still maintained steady growth, among which, from January to November, the import of Western medicine was 23.604 billion dollars, up 17.59% year on year; The import value of medical devices was US $14.085 billion, up 5.40% year on year.

Ii. Prospects for China's pharmaceutical foreign trade in 2015

In 2015, global pharmaceutical growth is expected to remain at 4 to 7 percent. In the context of the slow recovery of the global economy and the slow growth of the global pharmaceutical market, the domestic pharmaceutical industry is still in the deep water of transformation, the production of raw materials has not yet found a new growth point, and the preparation for the export of preparations is still incomplete, resulting in the mismatch between the supply of Chinese pharmaceutical resources and the global pharmaceutical demand. However, depending on China's long-term position in the international pharmaceutical value chain, as well as many enterprises that tend to be fixed cooperative relations, it is expected that in 2015, China's pharmaceutical foreign trade will maintain a medium-low growth.

(I) The export of API shows periodic changes

(2) The export of pharmaceutical preparations is gaining momentum, and the pace of international registration of pharmaceutical preparations will be faster and faster

(3) The export of plant extracts will continue to grow

(4) The export of medical devices maintained a slow growth momentum

5. Imports maintained moderate growth

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